03.31.25 -- If you're a business owner thinking about retirement or a future exit, recent market headlines may have you second-guessing the timing. But volatility doesn't have to derail your plans—it can be a signal to refine them.
Tariffs, inflation, Fed uncertainty, falling consumer confidence, and sharp equity market pullbacks have added turbulence to the first quarter. The S&P 500 is down over 5%, the Nasdaq over 10%, and sectors like tech and consumer discretionary have taken the biggest hits. The VIX, a measure of market fear, has climbed from 14.8 to over 21.
Here's what to keep in mind:
1. Your Business Is Not the Same as Your Financial Plan
Many owners have most of their net worth tied up in their company. But when business cash flow, investment portfolios, and eventual sale value all dip together, it can derail your ideal exit. Now is the time to diversify—not just your investments, but your overall risk exposure. A thoughtful shift today can prevent pressure later.
Your business may generate your income and even feel like your retirement plan—but it's not a substitute for a diversified, intentional financial strategy. A strong financial plan helps ensure that your personal wealth isn't overly dependent on the business's performance or timing.
2. Valuations Shift—But a Plan Anchors You
Market volatility impacts public company valuations, but it also affects private markets. If you're planning to sell your business in 3-5 years, consider:
- Getting a valuation or readiness assessment now
- Using a financial plan to simulate various exit values
- Mapping how proceeds will cover your lifestyle, taxes, and goals
3. The Tariff Effect Is a Reminder, Not a Red Light
Yes, the 25% tariff on imported vehicles is unsettling, and global supply chains are under pressure. But long-term, markets adapt. Businesses with a clear growth story, clean financials, and a plan to transfer leadership still command value. Don't let headlines delay important decisions.
4. Copper, Commodities, and the Bigger Picture
Copper has surged to all-time highs, reminding us that under the surface of market noise, big structural shifts are happening. Energy infrastructure, AI, and industrial innovation are all long-term growth stories. Aligning your investments and exit plan with where the economy is headed—not where it's been—can give you a powerful edge.
Whether you're a few years away or already thinking about what's next, the most effective exit plans are built during stable times—and revisited during volatile ones. If you'd like to explore what that looks like for your situation, I'm here to help.