09.14.25 - I used to feel a little out of place on a golf course. Then my son started playing tournaments, and suddenly I had to learn the language: birdies, bogeys, eagles—and yes, the occasional punch-out from the pines.
With the Fed meeting this week (September 16-17) and markets now pricing in a near-certain rate cut, everyone's parsing Fed-speak for hints about whether they'll be "dovish" or "hawkish." These avian terms have always struck me as oddly poetic for central banking—and it turns out, they share surprising DNA with golf's own bird-based vocabulary.
The Language of Birds
Hawks are predators—aggressive, sharp-eyed hunters. In Fed terms, hawkish officials hunt inflation with higher interest rates. Doves, meanwhile, are gentle creatures associated with peace. Dovish Fed members favor lower rates to nurture economic growth. These terms were popularized in 1960s Vietnam-era politics, with "inflation hawk" appearing by the late 1960s. The labels became common in monetary policy discussions by the 1980s. They stuck because they're simple, vivid, and hard to resist during FOMC season.
Golf developed its own aviary through pure chance. A "birdie" (one under par) originated at Atlantic City Country Club—often traced to 1899 when a golfer hit a fantastic shot and declared it was a "bird of a shot," with "bird" being slang for something excellent. An "eagle" (two under) soared even higher. The "albatross" (three under)—so rare it's almost mythical.
The Consistency Game
Both domains understand: it's not about the one spectacular shot. In golf, the difference between a weekend warrior and a scratch player isn't the best shot they can hit—it's the worst shot they typically hit. Champions win not with miraculous recoveries but with relentless consistency.
The Fed faces the same challenge. They're not aiming for one perfect policy decision but rather consistent, predictable moves that keep the economy in the fairway. Last week's labor data—August's mere 22,000 job additions and unemployment at 4.3%—suggests they're not sitting pretty. Job openings now sit at roughly one per unemployed worker (0.99 in July, to be exact) for the first time since April 2021. That's the Fed in the pines, needing a careful punch-out rather than a hero shot.
With VIX holding between 14.7 and 15.4 this week, the "Rule of 16" implies roughly 1% expected daily moves for the S&P 500—the market equivalent of knowing your shot dispersion. Quiet, but not motionless. Predictable enough to plan, volatile enough to pay attention.
Last Week's Scorecard
Professional golfers know their dispersion patterns—not just where they aim, but where the ball actually goes. The Fed got their read on the economy last week:
Wednesday's PPI came in softer than expected—down 0.1% monthly, up just 2.6% year-over-year. That's the economic equivalent of finding a better lie than you expected.
Thursday's CPI printed +2.9% y/y (as expected) and +0.4% m/m (a touch above the +0.3% consensus). That's still above the Fed's 2% PCE goal, but far from the 9.1% CPI peak in June 2022. Like a bogey after three birdies—you're still under par.
Friday's consumer sentiment data added a wrinkle: preliminary Michigan sentiment fell to 55.4, while 5-year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.9%. That's the Fed's reminder that the course conditions can change quickly.
What to Listen for on September 17
Think of these as classic phrases the Chair might use—and what they really mean:
- "Policy is restrictive" → The Fed's already clubbing down, believing rates are tight enough to pressure inflation (hawkish lean)
- "We will proceed carefully/data-dependently" → Reading the lie, not just the yardage book—expect small moves, no hero shots
- "Higher for longer" → Center-of-green golf, safety first if inflation proves sticky (hawkish tilt)
- "Risk-management considerations" → Sometimes a lay-up beats going for it in two—slowing jobs may justify cushioning growth (dovish tilt)
The new dot plot will be crucial. If it drifts lower for 2025-26, think of it as the back nine getting shorter—markets read this as more birdie chances ahead. But upward revisions to inflation forecasts? That's wind in your face, signaling fewer cuts than markets want.
The Week Ahead
With last week's data in the books, markets have moved to near-certainty on a 25 basis point cut, with just a 5-10% chance of 50 basis points. Powell's consistency suggests he'll take the prudent path: the 25-point "lay up."
For business owners and investors, the trick is the same: build a system that plays for par and lets the birdies come to you. The Fed's job is to avoid the inflation bogey; ours is to keep cash smart, risk sized, and plans on course—no hero shots required.
Bottom line: Markets are near-certain the Fed cuts rates this week, almost surely 25 basis points. Last week's soft PPI and on-target (if slightly warm monthly) CPI cleared the fairway, though rising long-term inflation expectations remind us the rough is still in play. Position for lower rates, but remember—consistency beats heroics in both golf and investing.